A string of coups and heightened anti-French sentiment sweeping across West and Central Africa hold important political and military lessons for African governments and their international partners, analysts tell VOA.
French influence loomed large over its former colonies in West and Central Africa, well after the era of independence from foreign rule. But now Paris appears to be facing a reckoning in the region, triggered by military takeovers in several of its former colonies. Ruling juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have expelled French troops and ambassadors, drastically reducing Paris' role in a region-wide fight against insurgents linked to al-Qaida and Islamic State.
Following the July 26 military mutiny in Niger, tens of thousands of coup supporters rallied in the capital Niamey, denouncing France and burning French flags. Some demonstrators brandished Russian flags and expressed support for Moscow. Similar scenes have played out in Burkina Faso and Mali.
Gnaka Lagoke, a professor of history and Africana studies at Lincoln University in Pennsylvania said the end of the Francafrique era had been a long time coming.
"There is a sense in some African countries that economic and political life is still being controlled by the French. The reality is that we are now in an age of revolt against the French establishment, and these African countries are seeking ‘a second independence," he told VOA. "People want their political and economic freedom, and they feel France is an obstacle to them achieving that."
Lagoke added that the heightened political tensions in the region allow world powers like China and Russia to expand their footprint in Africa.
"Russian President Vladimir Putin, for example, has succeeded in positioning himself as the one who appears to be fighting against the hegemony of the West," he said, adding that "people in Francophone Africa look at Russia as a potential partner that shares their ideals and supports them in their struggle."
The coup in Niger and the ouster of President Mohamed Bazoum alarmed many in West Africa, Europe and the United States. Niger had been a key security partner for Western governments, who used the landlocked West African country as a base in the fight against Islamist insurgents in the Sahel. Observers say there are concerns about a new — and potentially dangerous — dynamic in the Sahel, that could hurt counterterrorism efforts there, and boost Russian influence in the region.
With the entire central Sahel region now under the control of military regimes, the coups have also put West African leaders at a critical juncture. The Economic Community of West African States, (ECOWAS) has slapped sanctions on Niger, demanded that President Bazoum be reinstated, and threatened military action as a last resort. The Nigerian junta ignored ECOWAS' ultimatum, saying any military action would be "a declaration of war." In September, the military rulers of Mali, Burkina Faso signed a mutual defense pact, promising to help each other militarily against outside aggression and internal rebellion.
Babacar Ndiaye, a senior fellow at the Timbuktu Institute in Senegal says a Pandora's box may have been opened that threatens ECOWAS' ability to address regional security challenges and keep the alliance of its 15 member states intact.
"ECOWAS was marginalized in the fight against terrorism in the Sahel because of its lack of military resources, but at least it set the framework for coordinating international efforts, both militarily, politically and from an organizational point of view. With Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger appearing to be breaking away, so to speak, there is a new dynamic around lack of trust among ECOWAS member states," he told VOA’s Straight Talk Africa.
Ndiaye said that the regional bloc is facing a litmus test for its credibility and survival.
"This is a serious blow to ECOWAS' 30-year-long efforts to establish legal frameworks and architecture that would put good governance, constitutional rule and human rights at the heart of its conflict prevention mechanisms in West Africa. Those provisions also allowed for the regional bloc to intervene, for example, and avoid anti-constitutional changes in government," Ndiaye said. "But with the recent military coups, there is now a new wave of authoritarianism that is taking place in West Africa, backsliding democratic efforts that were slowly and patiently built over the years."
Ndiaye added that there is another major factor driving change in the Sahel: young people, who are "disenchanted with democracy," as they experience it in their countries.
"The hope was that, with democracy, there would be free and fair elections, good governance, transparency and the rule of law. But what many young people see is a dysfunctional democracy, with rigged elections, lack of accountability and, worst of all, no economic progress. The youth are “upset, impatient and mobilized," he said, adding that "people see other models, like Russia, China as illiberal democracies that provide development and they think those countries could be used as a model versus models from the West."
Lagoke predicts there will be coups in the region in the coming months but could not say where or when the next one will be. He told VOA that African governments must urgently address the root causes of the current diplomatic and domestic headwinds.
"They need to provide basic services, they need to elevate the standard of living in their countries, and they need to respect their people. You cannot expect people who are being oppressed to stay quiet," he said.
Forum