Amid international condemnation over the military takeover in Guinea, the Economic Community of West African States has suspended Guinea's membership, demanding a return to constitutional order and the immediate release of President Alpha Conde. West African leaders have agreed to send a high-level delegation to the country.
VOA's Mohamed Elshinnawi spoke to Joseph Siegle, director of research at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, about the possible impact of the actions on the coup leaders.
The interview was edited for brevity and clarity.
VOA: What is your reaction to Guinea’s suspension from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) following the coup?
FILE - Residents cheer at army soldiers as they celebrate the uprising in Conakry, Guinea, Sept 5, 2021.
Siegle: It sends an important signal that this is not going to be tolerated and this is not the way that leaders should be replaced. And so in that way it provides some action to back up the condemnation that followed the coup. But I think we'll just have to wait and see now what happens and how determined the ECOWAS will be. The coup leaders will likely try to outlast ECOWAS and test their determination. And given ECOWAS’s faltering record in standing up to coups in Mali and Chad in the past 12 months, there's good reason to doubt their resolve. But I think it’s an important stand, it’s an important moment for ECOWAS if they expect to be taken seriously and if they hope to prevent the norm of coups from returning to Africa and in West Africa. Recall that we had not seen a coup in Africa for many years prior to this recent spate. And so I think what happens here will have broader implications for governance standards on the continent.
VOA: The U.S., the UN, the European Union and the African Union condemned the military takeover and demanded a return to constitutional democracy in Guinea. Would that force the coup leaders to reconsider their action?
FILE - A screengrab taken from footage sent to AFP by a military source shows President Alpha Conde after he was captured by military members in Conakry, Guinea, Sept 5, 2021.
Siegle: I think on its own it will not cause them to reconsider. However, if they sustain and remain cohesive in that position and can join ECOWAS in insisting that the coup not be recognized then I think it can make a difference. In the end, the coup leaders need international recognition for them to operate — they won't have access to financial markets, they won't have diplomatic courtesies. And so they need that international recognition. And I think at the same time as the international community talks about constitutionalism, they have to take into consideration that the way Conde himself retained power last year is also a matter of concern. He was able to avoid the restrictions on a third term and effectively orchestrated a fraudulent election last October. The parallel vote counts that were very credible showed him losing that election. And there was evidence of the 2.5 million ghost voters and other deficiencies. Yet his declared victory was tolerated by the international community. And so I think that is what is at the root of instability we're seeing now.