GOP rival Nikki Haley, meanwhile, came up short in her effort to capitalize on her strength with independent and anti-Trump voters eager for a fresh voice to lead the party.
Biden prevailed even though he wasn’t on the ballot. His supporters mounted a write-in campaign on his behalf to avoid a loss, even though the contest awards no delegates because it violates the national party rules he pushed for.
HaleyPledges to Continue Onward to South Carolina
Haley didn’t win New Hampshire, but she says her 2024 campaign is full steam ahead regardless.
Appearing at her election night party Tuesday, Haley thanked New Hampshire “for the love, the kindness, the support and a great night.”
Haley congratulated Trump on his victory, saying, “He earned that, and I want to acknowledge that.”
FILE - Republican presidential candidate former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, left, hugs her son Nalin Haley at a New Hampshire primary night rally, in Concord, N.H., January. 23, 2024.
But Haley said that the GOP race “is far from over.” She vowed to take her “scrappy” campaign onward to her home state of South Carolina, which holds its GOP primary next month.
Haley also took a swipe at Trump for appearing to confuse her with former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, saying that his avowed confidence that he would score higher than her on a competency test should mean that he “should have no problem standing on a debate stage with me.”
How Haley fell short
Haley drew her support from groups that were distinct minorities in the GOP electorate, according to AP VoteCast. She beat Trump among primary participants who were not formally affiliated with any party. About half of her supporters were college graduates and about half identified as moderates.
AP VoteCast is a survey of more than 1,890 New Hampshire voters who were taking part in the Republican primary and 873 Democratic primary voters. The survey is conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.
New Hampshire's Republican voters expect Trump to be the GOP nominee
About 8 in 10 GOP primary participants said they expect Trump will win the presidential nomination, according to AP VoteCast. Only about 2 in 10 say Haley will secure it. More than half of Haley’s own supporters think Trump will be victorious in the nominating contest.
How Trump won in New Hampshire
AP VoteCast showed Trump won big in small towns and rural communities, where about two-thirds of primary participants said they live. Most GOP voters in the state lack a college degree and about two-thirds of them voted for Trump. The former president won about 7 in 10 Republican voters who identified as conservatives and those who were registered Republicans.
FILE - Republican presidential hopeful and former US President Donald Trump gestures as he speaks during a rally in Laconia, New Hampshire, January 22, 2024.
Why the AP called New Hampshire’s Democratic primary for Biden
The Associated Press declared Biden the winner of New Hampshire's Democratic primary based on an analysis of initial vote returns where write-in votes have been tabulated by candidate.
The early returns confirm the findings of AP’s VoteCast survey of likely Democratic primary voters, which found an overwhelming majority of write-in voters supporting the incumbent president. Together, they show that Biden has an insurmountable lead over the rest of the Democratic field.
FILE - Boston Mayor Michelle Wu joins supporters demonstrating at a Joe Biden Write-In Rally in Manchester, New Hampshire, on January 20, 2024.
Biden decided not to put his name on the New Hampshire ballot, since the state’s primary violates Democratic Party rules. It was Biden’s idea to bump the state from its prized first-in-the-nation primary calendar slot in favor of South Carolina, which resuscitated his struggling campaign in 2020. Instead, his supporters are backing him as a write-in candidate.
The VoteCast survey asked likely voters if they would support U.S. Rep. Dean Phillips, author Marianne Williamson or someone else. Of those who said they support someone else, nearly all indicated they would write in Biden.
As of 8:09 p.m., Phillips and Williamson were at 21% and 5% of the tabulated vote, respectively, and AP’s analysis shows that there are no scenarios for either to end up the winner.