Pressure is mounting near the end of the first week of the UN negotiations hosted by the oil-rich UAE, with Europe's climate monitor confirming that 2023 will be the hottest year in recorded history.
The latest draft of a global climate agreement is "probably" expected on Wednesday before it is finalized — in theory — on December 12, according to two people familiar with the negotiations.
The fate of oil, gas and coal — the main drivers of human-caused planet heating — has been the biggest sticking point on the agenda, and divisions around their future have dominated the conference.
FILE - Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Simon Stiell and United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres attend COP28 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, December 1, 2023.
"We have a starting text on the table, but it's a grab bag of ... wish lists and heavy on posturing," Stiell told reporters.
"At the end of next week, we need COP to deliver a bullet train to speed up climate action. We currently have an old caboose chugging over rickety tracks," he said at the start of a long day, with a plenary session scheduled for later in the afternoon.
'Orderly and just' phase-out?
Battle lines have previously been drawn on whether to agree to "phase out" or "phase down" fossil fuels.
However the latest text includes a new phrase calling for an "orderly and just" phase-out of fossil fuels.
The language could signal a consensus candidate as it would give countries different timelines to cut emissions depending on their level of development and reliance on fossil fuels.
But there is another option: no mention at all of fossil fuels, which reflects opposition from nations including Saudi Arabia, Russia and China, according to several observers who attended the closed meetings.
India on Tuesday evening opposed naming specific sectors or energy sources, one observer said.
One person familiar with the talks said the word "orderly" came from COP28 president Sultan Al Jaber, who also heads UAE national oil company ADNOC.
Another observer said China agrees with the language.
"It is necessary that every party move away from their red lines (and) into solutions," Germany's climate envoy Jennifer Morgan told AFP.
"We need to roll up our sleeves and get it done," she said.
Saudi Arabia's chief climate negotiator Khalid Almehaid, whose country's position is in the eye of the storm, said Tuesday that the 2015 Paris Agreement was a "great success for all of us."
"The challenge that we have today is how can we keep that train with all of its passengers," he said, alluding to the kingdom's objection to even phasing down fossil fuels.
The Alliance of Small Islands States, which includes some of the world's most climate-vulnerable countries urged a tougher stance on fossil fuels.
In a statement on Wednesday, the alliance's chairman Cedric Schuster called "on major emitters to enhance their commitments, including ... leading the way on fossil fuel phase out."
The new draft of the negotiated text expected on Wednesday must be brought to a large plenary meeting taking stock of the first week of talks ahead of a rest day on Thursday.
'Temperature will keep rising'
Phasing out fossil fuels and scaling up renewable energy is seen as crucial to the world's goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels.
However climate experts have warned that the Paris deal's 1.5C threshold could be breached within seven years if emissions are not slashed.
Meanwhile, the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service said on Wednesday that 2023 will be the hottest on record after November became the sixth record-breaking month in a row.
Last month smashed the previous November heat record, pushing 2023's global average temperature to 1.46C warmer than the pre-industrial era, the service said.
There had been previous warnings this year could take the title of hottest year from 2016 — particularly after records toppled in September and October — but this marks the first time it has been confirmed.
November also contained two days that were 2C warmer than pre-industrial levels. Not one such day had ever before been recorded.
Copernicus head Carlo Buontempo said that "as long as greenhouse gas concentrations keep rising we can't expect different outcomes."
"The temperature will keep rising and so will the impacts of heatwaves and droughts."